Hello all, it's been a while since my last post. These last months were spent mostly dedicated to finish my unfinished thesis - Ever heard of PhD comics? No? Well, it works better than Dilbert for me. Here's a nice one ... And here's the drop.io to my submitted manuscript, if anyone cares (warning: heavy maths) -
Anyway, a lot has happened during these months (of course), and it's time, after four years of blogging about the shift of paradigm from the desktop to the webtop, to wander if the title still makes any sense today, or if it has aged? Is it time to go? Or is it time to keep on rock-and-roll?
First, let's recap the last months (more or less in the chronological order, as I far as I can remember -too lazy to do scrupulous search-):
1) Google announces the Chrome OS and its stateless, diskless version of the netbook. It runs web-apps and web-apps only. It boots zilch-fast, less than 2 seconds. Yet to be sold, reportedly by the end of 2010.
2) Html5 and some new video codecs are getting alot of buzz. Html5 allows non-flash video, offline caching for making cooler web-apps and more semantic-tags (remember the semantic-web meme?).
3) Apple launches the iPad and a new version of the iPhone OS. It still ditches Adobe's Flash in all its "magic-top"/"casual-top"/"touch-top" (erase the names you don't like) platforms (to keep control on the iDevelopers). The iPad is a magical device providing the best web-surfing experience EVER (so they say). It sheds another spotlight in this gadget that I'm very fond of, the Amazon Kindle, the revolutionary e-book reader. This means that the ebook trend will go up with all these great surface delivery platforms. That's a good thing. Furthermore, iPhone OS 4 adds background processes (only for 3GS phones). Finally, the old media renaissance hype on the iPad is decreted a fad by uber-geek-techy-mac-fanboys (too expensive, no sharing allowed, hence, too frustrating).
4) Google launches and sells the Nexus One, a google-branded Android powered smartphone. No other hardware known by man matches the iPhone, yet. Android doesn't beat the UX design of the iPhone neither (too many heads designing). BUT... the Android is the best web-touch-top available out there: it's always in sync with all your gmail, contacts, docs, calendar etc... So, my view is that it's a trade off between having a better sensorial multi-touch magic (choose iPhone) or a better, more open, more functional, sync-in-cloud machine (choose Android). Both the App Store and the Android market have lots of apps available (150K VS 35K) and both have quite strong titles. Frankly, I'm more bent towards the Android, as what I really need in a smartphone (with very limited autonomy) are my contacts, gmail and google stuff all synched-in-the-cloud. Then, maybe later, toss in a twitter and a facebook app, and I'll be fine. Smartphones are too slow and too battery limited and have a too tiny screen for me to go really heavy on apps. Most apps are just fads to me. They have a lot of hype because the App store delivers money to developpers. But, somehow, that's sadening to me (more on that later).
5) Palm is declared to be dying. Windows announces a windows mobile 7 phone and they report it as being great. We'll see...
6) Facebook keeps on steadily ramping up and roaring the whole world into its swirl. They have the fastest web-app out there, that I can think of. It just works lightning fast. A third of my friends (if not more) are all on facebook. I use twitter to make contact with geeks, but I use facebook (and email) for my non-geek friends. That's good, because it *is* added value. That's also bad because it's quite a closed garden. And how I don't like closed gardens :'( There should be an "openbook" social-app ...
7) "Game-mechanics" was the latest meme triggered by overhyped location-based apps, foursquare and gowalla. Very rough edges versions. They did standardized the "check-in" concept pioneered by Brightkite, as far as I can tell. At tne SXSW festival, gowalla won (but they played at home). It will be interesting to see how these apps evolve...
8) Twitter announces (finally) its business model (adtweets) and will add metadata to the tweets. Twitter builds a more solid partnership with its developpers (taking the queue from the App store success, for sure). It also buys the best clients out there for iPhone (Tweetie).
9) Last, but not least, the settled buzz over the basic tools for the cloud's infrastructure are called memcached, hadoop and map-reduce.
10) Where's the money? Google's business model (selling text ads in their search results) is well-developed for the desktop web experience but they needed to start from scratch in the mobile space. You see, when people search on mobile, they're only looking for a quick answer. No time to click on anything else, like, say, an interesting ad. But if people are casual-gaming, then maybe, they can spare a few seconds and click on some interesting banner ad. So the cash-cow in mobile advertising, so far, is displaying banner ads in apps. People are doing apps right now in mobile, more than anything else, a lot more than search. Banner ads in apps give money. This is what admob does and does very well. And that is why Google bought them and is working with them.
But Admob CEO is right when he said that mobile advertising is in the "Yahoo phase". I believe apps are only great for gaming, casual gaming, and they're mostly a fad. I believe in more powerful ways to make smartphones smarter. There is still a lot of work to be done. Namely, speech-to-text techniques need to be a hell of a lot better, and the processor power and snappyness needs still to become waaayy better. Telepathy-texting would also be a nice way to perform elaborated searches on mobile devices. Advertising needs also to take a serious advantage on the location-awareness of the hardware. Basically, admob banner ads is only at stage zero, and Google may buy them just to show off a few bucks made, but the biggest game-changing technologies in mobile need yet to be made: faster (processing-power), longer (battery-life), smarter (human-device communication channels -voice,thought,touch-). I'll admit that Apple solved the multi-touch human-device communication channel, and that's a lot! But we need faster and better voice-to-text tech, faster and better image and sound search. It's all about the smart use of all the sensors stuffed in our smartphones. We've only used but a small fraction of what they could do.
Anyway, I have mostly two more ideas that I want to share with you. The first idea is that I'm sensing a reversing in the vision of the webtop. There are too many developers with the app-store gold fever, spending way too much time learning Objective-C and Cocoa and not learning javascript and css tricks. I'm at this point, as in the story of "Dune", where Paul Atreides envisions two plausible pathways for the future to unfold. He drank from the sacred water and it shows either to go "webtop" or to go "mobile apps". In my vision of the future unfolding, I say it should definitively be web-based-mobile-apps, that's where I want to go; but Apple keeps luring developers in droves to its development platform, and this makes the webtop/cloudtop, whatever you want to name it, a little bit more distant. So, unless it is pushed by Google, the webtop will sit idle until things change. Thus, for me, the app store is the *evil*, the *dark*-side of the force. The *white-light* side of the force are web-apps, with html5, javascript, css, apache, php, couchdb, memcached. Those are the ones baby, the one and only.
Why I'm not all in for apps? Too platform specific. But most important of all, not open enough. Cutting short of Tim Berners Lee's vision is not where I want to be. Sure, games make gamers happy. Not my cup of tea, though.
The second idea (or trend, really) is that the free-model is reverting as well. Developers start to reinvidicate (righteously) for users to pay (take Ning for example). This has been imposed by the worldwide economic recession and also by taking the queue from the hottest platform of the moment, the app-store and the itunes store. This is partly good.
A couple of years ago, the most bleeding-edge mobile app developers were betting on windows mobile and blackberry, and they would use .NET and ASPX to develop their web-sites (like Loopt or Wizi). Mobile windows developers will be glad to hear that microsoft is teaming once more with them, and shipping a new and potentially big-deal mobile platform.
All in all, you guessed it: the webtopmania is here to stay. I predict a blossoming of touchtablets-oriented web-sites and the Google cloud productivity suite will get more and more traction. Long live the chrome OS, and may they build another "magical" tablet, one with Android or Chrome OS within...
Finally, a last thought about my vision of the ultimate ebook reader. Hint, it's not an iPad. What's 10 hour autonomy, compared to 10,000 hours? Besides, I like reading in B/W...
Oh, and this augmented-reality thingy? We'll see it popping around again in the near-future, somewhere near you ;)
As for me, I'll have to decide wether I'll keep investing in the web, whether in academia, whether I can do both... and start acting.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhx8t7Is_8S_fg18ncNoXdnZ3knq4x9jo-mSp-OHEaEskV0_vUVyZd7mVzB6Fe8yWRwOq5B8SSn4n8kKRCjLz9gsxTz30kq6bgmwwhogq7iGJ3pJ7lUavKdjZ4Qh5qAvnYDyUt7BQ/s500/Google+and+the+NSA-+Who%E2%80%99s+holding+the+%E2%80%98shit-bag%E2%80%99+now-+-+The+Stringer.png)
Aug
25
What is it Snowden, Assange, Eric Schmidt and Jared Cohen share in common?
Below is a screenshot of the most interesting article of 2013, period. Written by one the most-influentials "good" guys of world, Julian Assange. The article deals about the promiscuity between Google top-notch executives and the White House, and how it affects both institutions policies, at the expense of the people's freedom and will. Below the article I share with you some notes I've taken.
Assange sums it all up to us in two words: "Jared Cohen", and a question "Who is he? ". It's worth it to check him out. I googled him to find out he's a futurist thinker, thinking about the disruptive reach social networks and, now, context networks can attain, world-domination-wise. A megalomaniac thinker surely, with the wits, the will, the intuition, the perception and the goal.
Assange sums it all up to us in two words: "Jared Cohen", and a question "Who is he? ". It's worth it to check him out. I googled him to find out he's a futurist thinker, thinking about the disruptive reach social networks and, now, context networks can attain, world-domination-wise. A megalomaniac thinker surely, with the wits, the will, the intuition, the perception and the goal.
Mar
20
Collaboration 2.0, where are we?
Back in 2005 I was really excited about the web2.0 concepts, the web-based APIs, mashups, and all the new publishing tools that was later to be known by 2008 as "social-media". However, back then, it really wasn't the modern facebook-ish "social-media" model that was tingling my neurones; it was rather the emergent nature of these disruptive new tools such as blogs, wikis and web-based productivity apps such as Google Docs or Zoho.
Jan
4
Drop.io was bought by Facebook and this makes furious
Because now, all the links that I had disseminated through the web with mine and my wife's phd thesis are gone. Not a good thing for the sake of publishing, right? There used to be a time when I could feel a service would be good enough so that it wouldn't fail its users. Now it appears that good enough means being bought by some bigger fish and not caring about their former users.
I trusted drop.io with a whole semester of data from my classes.
I trusted drop.io with a whole semester of data from my classes.
Dec
27
Moving from a file-system to a tweet-system
Google, Apple, Microsoft, Facebook ... what is the REAL future of computing, as seen from 2010?
I don't know, exactly. In my last post I simply summed up Google to an advertisement company and Apple to a leisure-time company. And indeed, I still think it is what they are, and what they focus first to become, consciously.
I don't know, exactly. In my last post I simply summed up Google to an advertisement company and Apple to a leisure-time company. And indeed, I still think it is what they are, and what they focus first to become, consciously.
Dec
10
Google is an advertisement company. Apple is a leisure-time company.
Somebody wrote a while ago:
Google is an advertising company that builds popular services that command large audiences.
To which I add:
Apple is a leisure company that builds popular media-platforms that command large audiences of media-consumers.
And, to my insistence, beyond games/apps, music, movies, tv-shows, books and magazines, Apple will try hard to become a vacations, travel and experiences re-seller. It's the natural next-step for them ...
Google is an advertising company that builds popular services that command large audiences.
To which I add:
Apple is a leisure company that builds popular media-platforms that command large audiences of media-consumers.
And, to my insistence, beyond games/apps, music, movies, tv-shows, books and magazines, Apple will try hard to become a vacations, travel and experiences re-seller. It's the natural next-step for them ...
Oct
8
Going to Codebits 2010
I just got accepted to the most awesome workshop in the whole world, organized right here in Lisbon, the Codebits 2010, promoted by sapo.pt,
I'll be staying three days, in a row, in a big room packed with free wifi and free cable net access, unlimited free pizza, free cokes, free chocolate bars and a horde of PT finest geeks. I'll participate and assist to the biggest festival of creativity in PT geekdom. Missed it last year.
I'll be staying three days, in a row, in a big room packed with free wifi and free cable net access, unlimited free pizza, free cokes, free chocolate bars and a horde of PT finest geeks. I'll participate and assist to the biggest festival of creativity in PT geekdom. Missed it last year.
Oct
5
Tracking the impact of your business cards on your Google profile stats
One of the biggest pain in the butt after an exciting conference/workshop/meeting is inputing all your fresh new contacts business cards info into your digital mail/phonebook. This is a problem. An unsolved one too.
Another problem, is that you don't know who, from the meeting, after you gave them your contact, actually checked you out afterwards. You can't tell how many checked on you neither.
Here's an elegant and smart solution to alleviate this problem, provided it gets widely adopted.
Another problem, is that you don't know who, from the meeting, after you gave them your contact, actually checked you out afterwards. You can't tell how many checked on you neither.
Here's an elegant and smart solution to alleviate this problem, provided it gets widely adopted.
Jun
4
Android is for tasks and Chrome is for data.
Android is for tasks, life-hacks, body-hacks, and Chrome is for organized data, information.
At some point in the foreseeable future I expect to see an elegant merger where a next-gen browser will be the sole platform. But first, the life/body-hacks platform will need to walk the walk it has to walk, and I expect it to be, at least, a five-years march.
At some point in the foreseeable future I expect to see an elegant merger where a next-gen browser will be the sole platform. But first, the life/body-hacks platform will need to walk the walk it has to walk, and I expect it to be, at least, a five-years march.
May
14
FWD: The state of the Webtop: where are we going?
I'm reposting this entry posted back in April, in order to test some problems I'm having with the commenting systems...
Hello all, it's been a while since my last post. These last months were spent mostly dedicated to finish my unfinished thesis - Ever heard of PhD comics? No? Well, it works better than Dilbert for me. Here's a nice one ...
Hello all, it's been a while since my last post. These last months were spent mostly dedicated to finish my unfinished thesis - Ever heard of PhD comics? No? Well, it works better than Dilbert for me. Here's a nice one ...
Apr
17
The state of the webtop: where are we going?
Hello all, it's been a while since my last post. These last months were spent mostly dedicated to finish my unfinished thesis - Ever heard of PhD comics? No? Well, it works better than Dilbert for me. Here's a nice one ...
Jan
30
Should I get an iPad or a Chrome OS for my mom?
The ipad is probably more expensive than the Chrome OS... but the browser experience is better, much better. I'm bending towards buying an iPad for my mom, so that she'll start using a computer, finally! She bought a laptop because she wanted to get in touch with her kids and friends through gmail. But does she use it? Hell no! That wifi is too damn complicated to setup for her. She uses it with *reluctance*. She makes a sacrifice to stay in touch.
Dec
2
On the Google Chrome OS and my mom
My mom sure could use one of those Google PCs.
She's a veteran school teacher. She doesn't like using computers and hates the fact that she has to configure them for the wifi connection. She currently owns a windows vista laptop (her first PC) but she never uses it because it's hard for her to configure wifi at home and at work and Mac is too expensive. She doesn't quite like the word processor because it's too complicated for her (too many features).
She's a veteran school teacher. She doesn't like using computers and hates the fact that she has to configure them for the wifi connection. She currently owns a windows vista laptop (her first PC) but she never uses it because it's hard for her to configure wifi at home and at work and Mac is too expensive. She doesn't quite like the word processor because it's too complicated for her (too many features).
Nov
20
My late 2003 vision seems to materialize: Chrome OS is here!
I transcribe here, literally, the kick-off post of Webtop mania, to remind our (few but dearest) readers what this blog is all about, what's his purpose and why it exists in the first place.
What is the webtop mania? (October 18th 2006)
Consider the following sequence of words:
desktop
laptop
palmtop
...
What is the webtop mania? (October 18th 2006)
Consider the following sequence of words:
desktop
laptop
palmtop
...
Oct
28
Is Cinch really better than Twitter and Evernote?
There were a lot of reactions around the last post on Cinch. And some folks might be curious about the service and the iPhone app. So I decided to write a follow-up post (the title is possibly borrowed from someone else by now).
Cinch, the iPhone app, allows to share audio-notes taken with the iPhone, complemented with a photo and a 140 chars message. Cinch also works with regular mobile phones as you can call a Cinch number and record your audio-notes.
Cinch, the iPhone app, allows to share audio-notes taken with the iPhone, complemented with a photo and a 140 chars message. Cinch also works with regular mobile phones as you can call a Cinch number and record your audio-notes.
Oct
25
Cinch: better than Twitter, better than Evernote.
Wow, it's been a looong time since I posted something here. Lots of spider webs to clean up...
Anyway, I'm posting this entry to tell the world about this cool new thing I started using out of lately. It's called Cinch and it's the best thing since sliced-bread.
Anyway, I'm posting this entry to tell the world about this cool new thing I started using out of lately. It's called Cinch and it's the best thing since sliced-bread.
Jul
30
My take on cloud computing
Update: if you want to check out what is cloud-computing in a secured sandboxed environment please follow this link.
When I first started this blog, I wanted to make a statement about my vision regarding the future of computing. I called this new thing the webtop. That was back in 2006. It turns out that they called it the cloud.
But what is cloud-computing anyway?
The answer is easy if you take it logically.
When I first started this blog, I wanted to make a statement about my vision regarding the future of computing. I called this new thing the webtop. That was back in 2006. It turns out that they called it the cloud.
But what is cloud-computing anyway?
The answer is easy if you take it logically.
May
25
The iPhone needs glasses
Yes, it's true: the iPhone actually needs spectacles to correct its vision on close-up shots. Otherwise they get blurry.
Now, this isn't a problem for the regular family meeting group shots, BUT, if you're into REALLY futuristic stuff, you'll realize that the Apple design crew missed an important point: by not choosing a lens with auto-focus, they crippled the iPhone's vision to a point it performs text-recognition badly, or not at all.
Text-recognition? Yes, the iPhone does text-recognition.
Now, this isn't a problem for the regular family meeting group shots, BUT, if you're into REALLY futuristic stuff, you'll realize that the Apple design crew missed an important point: by not choosing a lens with auto-focus, they crippled the iPhone's vision to a point it performs text-recognition badly, or not at all.
Text-recognition? Yes, the iPhone does text-recognition.
Jan
26
The Future Of Hand-Held Devices...
People don't realize this yet, but what they really want is a device that becomes a living extension of their body, while enhancing their own sensing limitations. It'll make them feel smarter, more powerful. And - that - is a very addictive feeling.
I'm starting realizing this myself, because I've been using an iPhone for over six months now, and I've become pretty much addicted to it.
I'm starting realizing this myself, because I've been using an iPhone for over six months now, and I've become pretty much addicted to it.
Nov
19
Lolcats on my google mobile app
Google just launched earlier this week the new google mobile app with voice search. Now, we always went extatic in this blog, whenever a new web-based app with text-to-voice or voice-to-text features would come around. We all remember the twitterfone and the cinch blogtalkradio concepts and we're still thinking on how huge their impact will be in the info-included community.
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